Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
Hoffenheim
HOF
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim49%
Draw25%
Köln26%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.25
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hoffenheim will have the ball; Köln will not mind.
54%Possession43%
45%Territory37%
25%From set plays40%
0.12Chance quality0.13
5.3%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.