Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
Hamburger SV
HAM
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV16%
Draw25%
Dortmund59%
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.69
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.9%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–09.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession50%
33%Territory37%
20%From set plays10%
0.08Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.