Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
Hamburger SV
HAM
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV22%
Draw29%
Dortmund49%
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.41
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.8%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.3%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–28.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Dortmund will have the ball; Hamburger SV will not mind.
40%Possession55%
32%Territory41%
46%From set plays32%
0.08Chance quality0.08
7.5%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.