Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Mainz 05

MAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart43%
Draw26%
Mainz31%

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.33

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 1–27.3%
  • 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession50%
42%Territory45%
27%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.11
4.2%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.