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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Mainz 05

MAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart48%
Draw25%
Mainz27%

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.30

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 2–07.0%
  • 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

VfB Stuttgart get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

58%Possession51%
45%Territory43%
31%From set plays11%
0.12Chance quality0.14
4.8%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.