Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Paderborn
PAD
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn32%
Draw32%
Köln36%
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.09
Over 2.5
35%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–013.7%
- 1–113.6%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–012.3%
- 1–27.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession56%
38%Territory42%
64%From set plays37%
0.09Chance quality0.09
7.0%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
Köln
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.