Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Paderborn
PAD
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn32%
Draw29%
Köln40%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.35
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Köln get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession43%
30%Territory37%
18%From set plays40%
0.06Chance quality0.13
5.4%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.