Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Hoffenheim
HOF
RB Leipzig
RBL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim38%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig35%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.39
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession51%
44%Territory31%
11%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.17
4.6%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hoffenheim
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.