Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Hoffenheim
HOF
RB Leipzig
RBL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim33%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig40%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.56
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession61%
45%Territory51%
25%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.