Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Hamburger SV
HAM
Augsburg
AUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV31%
Draw28%
Augsburg41%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.39
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession42%
33%Territory32%
20%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.