Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund49%
Draw28%
Freiburg23%
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.91
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession52%
37%Territory43%
10%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.7%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.