Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund49%
Draw28%
Freiburg23%
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.94
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession48%
41%Territory34%
32%From set plays32%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.