Club Football Intelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Sat, 16 Jan, 14:30 UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach

BMG

14:30 UTC

Union Berlin

UNI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

M'gladbach44%

Draw30%

Union Berlin26%

Expected goals

1.30 – 0.95

Over 2.5

39%

Both to score

46%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%
1–113.1%
0–011.8%
0–19.9%
2–18.6%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

40%Possession36%

26%Territory33%

21%From set plays48%

0.12Chance quality0.13

4.7%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for M'gladbach, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

M'gladbach

Wael MohyaMF2G 1A 1.14/90
Joseph ScallyMF1G 1A 0.72/90
Shuto MachinoFW1G 0A 0.47/90

Union Berlin

Janik HabererMF2G 0A 0.75/90
Tim SkarkeFW0G 1A 0.51/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.