Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
Union Berlin
UNI
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Union Berlin45%
Draw29%
Paderborn26%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.02
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession51%
34%Territory30%
70%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.06
4.2%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Union Berlin
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.