Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
Union Berlin
UNI
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Union Berlin39%
Draw32%
Paderborn29%
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.95
Over 2.5
35%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 0–014.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paderborn will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.
36%Possession53%
33%Territory38%
48%From set plays64%
0.13Chance quality0.09
6.0%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.