Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
RB Leipzig
RBL
VfB Stuttgart
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Leipzig54%
Draw23%
VfB Stuttgart23%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.31
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession58%
31%Territory45%
24%From set plays31%
0.17Chance quality0.12
3.5%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for RB Leipzig, 3 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
VfB Stuttgart
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.