Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
Mainz 05
MAI
Hoffenheim
HOF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz34%
Draw28%
Hoffenheim38%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.38
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession51%
43%Territory44%
11%From set plays11%
0.14Chance quality0.12
6.0%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hoffenheim
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.