Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
Mainz 05
MAI
Hoffenheim
HOF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz42%
Draw27%
Hoffenheim31%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.27
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession54%
45%Territory45%
25%From set plays25%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.