Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
Freiburg
FRE
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg52%
Draw27%
Hamburger SV20%
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.88
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.3%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.1%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–19.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession40%
34%Territory32%
32%From set plays46%
0.10Chance quality0.08
3.5%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.