Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
Freiburg
FRE
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg61%
Draw24%
Hamburger SV15%
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.75
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.9%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession45%
43%Territory33%
23%From set plays20%
0.11Chance quality0.08
5.6%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.