Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
1. FC Köln
FCK
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Köln31%
Draw31%
Dortmund38%
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.15
Over 2.5
37%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–011.6%
- 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession55%
42%Territory41%
37%From set plays32%
0.09Chance quality0.08
4.7%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Köln, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Köln
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.