Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
1. FC Köln
FCK
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Köln24%
Draw27%
Dortmund49%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.58
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Köln get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
43%Possession50%
37%Territory37%
40%From set plays10%
0.13Chance quality0.13
6.0%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Köln, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.