Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
Bayern München
BAY
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München73%
Draw16%
Leverkusen11%
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.95
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession57%
43%Territory41%
16%From set plays21%
0.16Chance quality0.09
4.5%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Leverkusen
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.