Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
Bayern München
BAY
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München59%
Draw22%
Leverkusen19%
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.11
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
71%Possession65%
59%Territory51%
14%From set plays35%
0.14Chance quality0.11
4.0%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.