Club Football Intelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Tue, 12 Jan, 19:30 UTC

Augsburg

AUG

19:30 UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach

BMG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Augsburg47%

Draw26%

M'gladbach27%

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.23

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%
1–09.8%
2–19.4%
2–07.4%
0–17.0%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Augsburg will have the ball; M'gladbach will not mind.

59%Possession40%

45%Territory26%

31%From set plays21%

0.10Chance quality0.12

3.9%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for M'gladbach. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Augsburg

Michael GregoritschFW2G 0A 0.85/90
Fabian RiederMF1G 1A 0.67/90
Arijon IbrahimovićMF0G 1A 0.39/90

M'gladbach

Wael MohyaMF2G 1A 1.14/90
Joseph ScallyMF1G 1A 0.72/90
Shuto MachinoFW1G 0A 0.47/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.