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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Augsburg

AUG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart51%
Draw23%
Augsburg26%

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.39

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.7%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–07.4%
  • 2–06.6%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession59%
45%Territory45%
31%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness3.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.