Bundesliga · Matchweek 15
Paderborn
PAD
RB Leipzig
RBL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paderborn21%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig53%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.69
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.4%
- 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession51%
38%Territory31%
64%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.17
7.0%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.