Bundesliga · Matchweek 15
Hoffenheim
HOF
Elversberg
ELV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim63%
Draw21%
Elversberg16%
Expected goals
2.10 – 0.99
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.1%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession46%
44%Territory27%
11%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.14
4.6%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Elversberg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hoffenheim
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.