Bundesliga · Matchweek 15
Hamburger SV
HAM
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV18%
Draw24%
Leverkusen58%
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.78
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen will have the ball; Hamburger SV will not mind.
45%Possession65%
33%Territory51%
20%From set plays35%
0.08Chance quality0.11
4.5%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.