Bundesliga · Matchweek 15
1. FC Köln
FCK
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Köln32%
Draw28%
Freiburg40%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.38
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Freiburg will have the ball; Köln will not mind.
43%Possession52%
37%Territory43%
40%From set plays23%
0.13Chance quality0.11
6.0%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Köln, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.