Bundesliga · Matchweek 15
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund48%
Draw27%
Mainz24%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.02
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Dortmund get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession51%
41%Territory43%
32%From set plays11%
0.08Chance quality0.14
4.3%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.