Bundesliga · Matchweek 15
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund55%
Draw26%
Mainz19%
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.90
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Mainz get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession50%
37%Territory45%
10%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.7%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.