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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Union Berlin

UNI

Hoffenheim

HOF

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Union Berlin31%
Draw27%
Hoffenheim42%

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.49

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 0–19.8%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 2–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

50%Possession54%
34%Territory45%
70%From set plays25%
0.09Chance quality0.12
4.2%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.