Bundesliga · Matchweek 14
RB Leipzig
RBL
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Leipzig47%
Draw27%
Dortmund26%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.13
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession55%
31%Territory41%
24%From set plays32%
0.17Chance quality0.08
3.5%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for RB Leipzig, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.