Bundesliga · Matchweek 14
RB Leipzig
RBL
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Leipzig37%
Draw28%
Dortmund34%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.27
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
RB Leipzig will have the ball; Dortmund will not mind.
61%Possession50%
51%Territory37%
31%From set plays10%
0.12Chance quality0.13
3.7%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for RB Leipzig, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.