Bundesliga · Matchweek 14
Mainz 05
MAI
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz43%
Draw29%
Köln28%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.05
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–010.2%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Köln get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession56%
43%Territory42%
11%From set plays37%
0.14Chance quality0.09
6.0%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Köln
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.