Bundesliga · Matchweek 14
Mainz 05
MAI
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz48%
Draw26%
Köln26%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.16
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession43%
45%Territory37%
25%From set plays40%
0.11Chance quality0.13
5.4%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.