Bundesliga · Matchweek 14
Freiburg
FRE
VfB Stuttgart
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg47%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart27%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.19
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.5%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
43%Territory42%
23%From set plays27%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.