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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Bayer Leverkusen

LEV

Eintracht Frankfurt

SGE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Leverkusen44%
Draw27%
Frankfurt29%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.23

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.7%
  • 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

57%Possession50%
41%Territory37%
21%From set plays17%
0.09Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leverkusen, 3 for Frankfurt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Leverkusen

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.