Bundesliga · Matchweek 14
Augsburg
AUG
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Augsburg51%
Draw26%
Paderborn23%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.07
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
59%Possession53%
45%Territory38%
31%From set plays64%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.9%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Augsburg
Paderborn
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.