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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Union Berlin

UNI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart56%
Draw25%
Union Berlin19%

Expected goals

1.76 – 0.95

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.3%
  • 1–111.1%
  • 2–010.1%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

VfB Stuttgart will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.

58%Possession36%
45%Territory33%
31%From set plays48%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.8%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.