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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Union Berlin

UNI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart55%
Draw24%
Union Berlin22%

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.13

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–08.5%
  • 3–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession50%
42%Territory34%
27%From set plays70%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.2%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.