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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Paderborn

PAD

Elversberg

ELV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Paderborn42%
Draw28%
Elversberg30%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.20

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–010.6%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession46%
38%Territory27%
64%From set plays25%
0.09Chance quality0.14
7.0%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Elversberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.