Bundesliga · Matchweek 13
Mainz 05
MAI
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz36%
Draw30%
Freiburg34%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.19
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession52%
45%Territory43%
25%From set plays23%
0.11Chance quality0.11
5.4%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.