Bundesliga · Matchweek 13
Mainz 05
MAI
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz43%
Draw28%
Freiburg29%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.16
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Freiburg get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession48%
43%Territory34%
11%From set plays32%
0.14Chance quality0.10
6.0%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.