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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Hoffenheim

HOF

Bayern München

BAY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hoffenheim24%
Draw25%
Bayern München51%

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.74

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 0–110.2%
  • 1–29.7%
  • 0–28.2%
  • 1–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

51%Possession58%
44%Territory43%
11%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.16
4.6%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.