Bundesliga · Matchweek 13
1. FC Köln
FCK
RB Leipzig
RBL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Köln27%
Draw28%
RB Leipzig45%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.47
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession51%
42%Territory31%
37%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.17
4.7%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Köln, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Köln
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.