Bundesliga · Matchweek 13
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Augsburg
AUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund63%
Draw22%
Augsburg15%
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.87
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Dortmund will have the ball; Augsburg will not mind.
50%Possession42%
37%Territory32%
10%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.7%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.