Bundesliga · Matchweek 13
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Augsburg
AUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund52%
Draw25%
Augsburg23%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.09
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession59%
41%Territory45%
32%From set plays31%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.3%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.