Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
RB Leipzig
RBL
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Leipzig52%
Draw25%
Mainz23%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.09
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
RB Leipzig will have the ball; Mainz will not mind.
61%Possession50%
51%Territory45%
31%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.11
3.7%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for RB Leipzig, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.