Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
RB Leipzig
RBL
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
RB Leipzig57%
Draw23%
Mainz20%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.12
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession51%
31%Territory43%
24%From set plays11%
0.17Chance quality0.14
3.5%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for RB Leipzig, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.