Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
Freiburg
FRE
Hoffenheim
HOF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg32%
Draw29%
Hoffenheim40%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.34
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Freiburg get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession51%
34%Territory44%
32%From set plays11%
0.10Chance quality0.12
3.5%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for Hoffenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hoffenheim
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.