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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Elversberg

ELV

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Elversberg28%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart48%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.88

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.1%
  • 1–29.2%
  • 0–17.4%
  • 2–16.8%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

VfB Stuttgart will have the ball; Elversberg will not mind.

46%Possession58%
27%Territory45%
25%From set plays31%
0.14Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Elversberg, 3 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.