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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Elversberg

ELV

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Elversberg31%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart44%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.73

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–17.9%
  • 2–17.3%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

VfB Stuttgart will have the ball; Elversberg will not mind.

37%Possession52%
24%Territory42%
3%From set plays27%
0.16Chance quality0.12
4.0%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Elversberg, 3 for VfB Stuttgart. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.