Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
Bayern München
BAY
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München80%
Draw13%
Paderborn6%
Expected goals
2.67 – 0.67
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-2.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–013.0%
- 3–011.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Paderborn will not mind.
71%Possession51%
59%Territory30%
14%From set plays18%
0.14Chance quality0.06
4.0%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.