Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
Bayern München
BAY
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München78%
Draw15%
Paderborn7%
Expected goals
2.52 – 0.66
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–013.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 3–010.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
58%Possession53%
43%Territory38%
16%From set plays64%
0.16Chance quality0.09
4.5%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.