Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
Augsburg
AUG
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Augsburg43%
Draw28%
Köln30%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.19
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession56%
45%Territory42%
31%From set plays37%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.9%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Augsburg
Köln
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.