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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

VfB Stuttgart

STU

Eintracht Frankfurt

SGE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfB Stuttgart47%
Draw25%
Frankfurt28%

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.34

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–08.4%
  • 1–26.9%
  • 2–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession52%
42%Territory41%
27%From set plays27%
0.12Chance quality0.14
4.2%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Frankfurt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.