Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Mainz 05
MAI
Union Berlin
UNI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz51%
Draw27%
Union Berlin22%
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.92
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Mainz will have the ball; Union Berlin will not mind.
51%Possession36%
43%Territory33%
11%From set plays48%
0.14Chance quality0.13
6.0%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.