Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Mainz 05
MAI
Union Berlin
UNI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz52%
Draw26%
Union Berlin22%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.00
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession50%
45%Territory34%
25%From set plays70%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.