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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Hoffenheim

HOF

Augsburg

AUG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hoffenheim54%
Draw24%
Augsburg22%

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.15

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–08.4%
  • 3–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Augsburg will have the ball; Hoffenheim will not mind.

51%Possession59%
44%Territory45%
11%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.6%Directness3.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.