Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Hoffenheim
HOF
Augsburg
AUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hoffenheim51%
Draw25%
Augsburg25%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.21
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Hoffenheim will have the ball; Augsburg will not mind.
54%Possession42%
45%Territory32%
25%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hoffenheim, 3 for Augsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.