Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Hamburger SV
HAM
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV10%
Draw17%
Bayern München73%
Expected goals
0.78 – 2.37
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–212.3%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–39.3%
- 1–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Hamburger SV will not mind.
45%Possession71%
33%Territory59%
20%From set plays14%
0.08Chance quality0.14
4.5%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.