Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Hamburger SV
HAM
Bayern München
BAY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hamburger SV10%
Draw18%
Bayern München72%
Expected goals
0.75 – 2.26
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–212.7%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–39.1%
- 1–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Bayern München will have the ball; Hamburger SV will not mind.
40%Possession58%
32%Territory43%
46%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.16
7.5%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hamburger SV, 3 for Bayern München. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.