Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Freiburg
FRE
RB Leipzig
RBL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg28%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig45%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.58
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession51%
34%Territory31%
32%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.17
3.5%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.