Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Freiburg
FRE
RB Leipzig
RBL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Freiburg37%
Draw28%
RB Leipzig35%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.28
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
RB Leipzig will have the ball; Freiburg will not mind.
52%Possession61%
43%Territory51%
23%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.