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Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Freiburg

FRE

RB Leipzig

RBL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Freiburg37%
Draw28%
RB Leipzig35%

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.28

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.7%
  • 1010.1%
  • 019.8%
  • 008.7%
  • 218.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

RB Leipzig will have the ball; Freiburg will not mind.

52%Possession61%
43%Territory51%
23%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Freiburg, 3 for RB Leipzig. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.