Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
1. FC Köln
FCK
Elversberg
ELV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Köln51%
Draw25%
Elversberg25%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.21
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Köln get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
43%Possession37%
37%Territory24%
40%From set plays3%
0.13Chance quality0.16
6.0%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Köln, 3 for Elversberg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.