Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund49%
Draw26%
Leverkusen25%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.10
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession57%
41%Territory41%
32%From set plays21%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Leverkusen
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.