Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund45%
Draw28%
Leverkusen28%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.11
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.8%
- 0–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen will have the ball; Dortmund will not mind.
50%Possession65%
37%Territory51%
10%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.7%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.