Bundesliga · Matchweek 10
Elversberg
ELV
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Elversberg26%
Draw27%
Freiburg47%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.53
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.2%
- 0–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Freiburg will have the ball; Elversberg will not mind.
37%Possession52%
24%Territory43%
3%From set plays23%
0.16Chance quality0.11
4.0%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Elversberg, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.