Bundesliga · Matchweek 10
Elversberg
ELV
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Elversberg33%
Draw27%
Freiburg40%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.48
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession48%
27%Territory34%
25%From set plays32%
0.14Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Elversberg, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Elversberg
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.