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Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Borussia Mönchengladbach

BMG

Borussia Dortmund

DOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

M'gladbach29%
Draw29%
Dortmund42%

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.32

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 0–112.6%
  • 0–010.6%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dortmund will have the ball; M'gladbach will not mind.

40%Possession55%
26%Territory41%
21%From set plays32%
0.12Chance quality0.08
4.7%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for M'gladbach, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.