Bundesliga · Matchweek 10
Borussia Mönchengladbach
BMG
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
M'gladbach18%
Draw26%
Dortmund56%
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.64
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–09.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
M'gladbach get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession50%
37%Territory37%
40%From set plays10%
0.07Chance quality0.13
5.7%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for M'gladbach, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
M'gladbach
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.