Bundesliga · Matchweek 10
Borussia Mönchengladbach
BMG
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
M'gladbach29%
Draw29%
Dortmund42%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.32
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.6%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Dortmund will have the ball; M'gladbach will not mind.
40%Possession55%
26%Territory41%
21%From set plays32%
0.12Chance quality0.08
4.7%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for M'gladbach, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.