Bundesliga · Matchweek 10
Bayern München
BAY
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München71%
Draw18%
Köln10%
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.74
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.9%
- 1–012.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Köln get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
58%Possession56%
43%Territory42%
16%From set plays37%
0.16Chance quality0.09
4.5%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bayern München, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Köln
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.