Bundesliga · Matchweek 10
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Paderborn
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leverkusen67%
Draw21%
Paderborn13%
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.78
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.0%
- 2–012.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leverkusen will have the ball; Paderborn will not mind.
65%Possession51%
51%Territory30%
35%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.06
3.7%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leverkusen, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paderborn
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.