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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Bayer Leverkusen

LEV

Paderborn

PAD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Leverkusen53%
Draw26%
Paderborn21%

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.00

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.1%
  • 1–111.6%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–09.4%
  • 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

57%Possession53%
41%Territory38%
21%From set plays64%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leverkusen, 3 for Paderborn. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Leverkusen

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.