Bundesliga · Matchweek 10
Augsburg
AUG
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Augsburg41%
Draw26%
Mainz33%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.42
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Augsburg will have the ball; Mainz will not mind.
59%Possession51%
45%Territory43%
31%From set plays11%
0.10Chance quality0.14
3.9%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Augsburg
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.