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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Augsburg

AUG

Mainz 05

MAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Augsburg35%
Draw28%
Mainz37%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.38

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 1–09.1%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mainz will have the ball; Augsburg will not mind.

42%Possession50%
32%Territory45%
16%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.